Religious Descrimination and Religious Identification: Unpacking Causality Using National Panel Data

Authors
Joseph Bulbulia

Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand

Chris G. Sibley

University of Auckland

Published

11/2/22

Overview

We have three interests.

First, we leverage data from a national longitudinal study in New Zealand to describe trends in self-reported perceptions of anti-religious prejudice in New Zealand during the years 2015-2022.

Second, we leverage time-series data to identify whether it is religious commitment that is responsible for perceptions prejudice or some third factor. That is, leverage time-series data to identify causality.

Third, we briefly speculate about the relevance of these findings to different audiences.

Method

Results

  Time8 Time9 Time10 Time11 Time12 Time13
(N=21936) (N=21867) (N=21796) (N=21717) (N=21661) (N=21936)
Mean (SD) 2.04 (1.42) 2.07 (1.43) 1.96 (1.36) 1.93 (1.37) 1.89 (1.35) 1.86 (1.33)
Median [Min, Max] 1.00 [1.00, 7.00] 1.00 [1.00, 7.00] 1.00 [1.00, 7.00] 1.00 [1.00, 7.00] 1.00 [1.00, 7.00] 1.00 [1.00, 7.00]
Missing 780 (3.6%) 6742 (30.8%) 6089 (27.9%) 7995 (36.8%) 8099 (37.4%) 10060 (45.9%)

(a) Change in Religious Identification

(b) Change in Spiritual Identification

Figure 1: Religious and Spiritual Change in Time 2016 Cohort.

Figure 2: Perceived Religious/Spiritual Discrimination in the Time 2016 NZAVS Cohort.

(a) 3 year causal effect of Religious Identification on Religious/Spiritual Discrimination

(b) 5 year causal effect of Religious Identification on Religious/Spiritual Discrimination

Figure 3: Religious Identification Effects on Religious/Spiritual Discrimination.

(a) 3 year causal effect of Spiritual Identification on Religious/Spiritual Discrimination

(b) 5 year causal effect of Spiritual Identification on Religious/Spiritual Discrimination

Figure 4: Spirituality Effects on Religious/Spiritual Discrimination.

(a) 4 year causal effect of Religious/Spiritual Discrimination on Religious Identification

(b) 4 year causal effect of Religious/Spiritual Discrimination on Spiritual Identification

Figure 5: Religious/Spiritual Discrimination effects on Religious/Spiritual Identification.

Conclusion

Notes: - do experiences of prejudice among people of the faith foster greater acceptance of religious minorities (Shaver et al. 2016)?

The topic is under-researched. religious decline is slow. Although religious people are a minority in New Zealand, for most of New Zealand’s colonial history there has been a religious majority. Because the decline in religious identification is less than 1% annually, the proportion of religious proportion year-to-year is not substantially different (Hoverd et al. 2015). Like the receding of a glacier, the decline of the religious minority is not readily apparent to the naked eye. Although these facts may help to explain the poverty of research on anti-religious prejudice, they do not provide excuses for ignoring it.

Importance

There are three audiences who might be interested in the longitudinal study of anti-religious prejudice.

First, there are social scientists. There has been considerable scientific attention to study of prejudice against historically marginalised groups. However, in countries such as New Zealand, religious people have only recently become the minority. Moreover, the bulk of prejudice research occurs in North America where the religiously identified remain a majority.

Second, there are philosophers and theologians. If we assume that good philosophy and theology must be grounded in the facts, it would seem important to include a growing religious minority in philosophical and theological reflection about prejudice.

Third, there are members of religious communities, including clergy. If the study of anti-religious prejudice reveals that many religious people are indeed experiencing greater prejudice religious communities should want to know.

References

Hoverd, W. J., J., N. Partow, and C. G. Sibley. 2015. “Forecasting Religious Change: A Bayesian Model Predicting Proportional Christian Change in New Zealand.” Religion, Brain & Behavior 5 (1): 1523. https://doi.org/ggm4fz.
Shaver, John H, Geoffrey Troughton, Chris G Sibley, and Joseph A Bulbulia. 2016. “Religion and the Unmaking of Prejudice Toward Muslims: Evidence from a Large National Sample.” PLoS One 11 (3): e0150209.

Reuse

CC BY-NC-SA

Citation

BibTeX citation:
@online{bulbulia2022,
  author = {Joseph Bulbulia and Chris G. Sibley},
  title = {Religious {Descrimination} and {Religious} {Identification:}
    {Unpacking} {Causality} {Using} {National} {Panel} {Data}},
  date = {2022-11-02},
  langid = {en}
}
For attribution, please cite this work as:
Joseph Bulbulia, and Chris G. Sibley. 2022. “Religious Descrimination and Religious Identification: Unpacking Causality Using National Panel Data.” November 2, 2022.